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[LUG] SCO Unix Linux Love Triangle
IMHO
Well having read through a great deal of Spin and Legal profanity I
think i am getting a measure of where this is coming from.
SCO has seen an ever decreasing revenue from its Unix Product in recent
Years. This reduces the share value in the markets.
Quick method to attempt to Buck the Markets :- Rule 1
Embark on an Aquisition Campaign.
i.e SCO Buys Caldera. This enhances product line and increases market
share (Client Base), which stimulates confidence in the market and bucks
the share price.
See Also SAGE, for similar trends of aquisition in the past and
currently - FT article 10/05/2003 Sage to invest £300m in Software
Aquistion. again Bucks Sage Share Price
SCO's Balance Sheets show lower profits and a reduction in R & D, as
cost of Caldera purchase and reduction in Unix Sales pull down turnover
and increase costs. Investors like to see a steady investment in R&D
from tech companies as future products will generate reveune.
As profits and product development reduce investor confidence flaggs
and share price falls.
Next move:-
Blagg the market and media in to believing you have got a new mouse trap.
Thus cook up a story to that shows that your nearest competitor is
actually operating outside the law. Investors see this as providing good
sales oppotunities and inciting customer doubt about competitive
products so once again SCO investor confidence stabilises. Therefore so
do the shares
Now for the next move.
Find a method to attack a company with enough clout to buy you out. hit
them with a lawsuit that if it succeeds the cost to that company would
be very large. Into the frame comes IBM.
IBM see's that if this goes to court they will have to cough up a load
of cash for nothing (either as legal costs to defend it or compensation
if they loose it). So they only have one way out.Force an agressive buy
out through the SCO Board ( This is much more easily achieved when Board
members are already under pressure to maintain share price, because
Directorate Fudiciary Duties of Trust state that in a PLC, they must act
in the best interests of the share holders of the Company. So if the per
share offer price is greater than the market value and the future
outlook is less than rosie then the Buy Out must be excepted. Or else
the board can be ripped apart at then next AGM.
Of Course the Board at SCO with this manouvre can now relax in the
knowledge that which ever way it goes they win. Income from Succesful
case or Income from overpriced buyout.
Sure the possiblity exist that IBM could just stick 2 Fingers up, but of
course they're stuck in a corner because all the media cover gives
market presence and so they can not afford to loose such a high profile
case.
Now to add some Mud to the Water...
Microsoft see's a excellent FUD (Fear uncertainty and Doubt) marketing
opportunity here.
So for a sum it buys into Unix licenses from SCO on some pretence of
wanting to use them.
The truth is this is a method to fund SCO's case against Linux. This
promotes the FUD campaign for Microsoft which they can spin into Oooo
you don't want to use Linux better buy MS Products.
Where from here..
Watch the press for the MS FUD campaign - This will come in the form of
What it intends to do with its newly aquired licenses for Unix as this
is enough to prompt the press to link each media article back to SCO IBM
LINUX story.
SCO is now talking of entering into a financial discussion with a Major
Vendor :-
Future here is either
A) They have been approached re Aquisition by IBM
or
B) Cloak and Dagger :- Make IBM Think that HP or SUN or Other are in the
Fray to make a bid. This lets IBM know that a buy out is on the table
Bottom Line :-
Linux is a powerfull disruptive technology in the Technology economy and
has more than a foot hold now . There is no way for the corporate sector
to fight back because of it's 'Free' Ethos.
I could be corrected on this next point but. IF SCO bought Caldera and
then Release Linux under GPL and now say that it's there intellectual
property, then surely this in itself means they can't do bugger all
about it. e.g
I write dumbnits an OS in the 1970's, My Staff sign confidentiality
contracts that I own everything including the concepts and designs and
they must not use them else where. Then in 2000 I buy up a company
producing feedumbnits, which my staff / exstaff have contributed to, and
package this as my own distro and release it under GPL as Rick's
freedumbnits. Then i have indirectly released my intellectual property
to GPL saying anyone can do what they like with it. Tricky to get round
that in a court.
Sure if MS took samba.org to court and said you reversed our SMB
technology which is our IP and now we want to sue you. I could see this
having some legal merit but the above is about as likely as Bill gates
releasing XP as GPL
Regards Rick
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