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Re: [LUG] Video chat

 

On 11/05/11 18:54, Gordon Henderson wrote:
> 
> How can they be worth $8 million if there's no revenue stream? (Ok,
> there is in the form of Skype-Out, etc. but is that covering their costs?)

Or even billion.

> Of have I missed something obvious...

I don't think so.

There are more revenue streams than Skype-Out (I hope so they only have
8.8 million paying users), they have various business services and
tie-ups, and they have just started advertising in the Windows client.

Even before advertising they were generating 800 million USD in revenue,
with a net loss of 6.9 million USD in year ending Dec 2010.

So the valuation is 10 times revenue, which is high given the current
profitability but not totally implausible, and the financials have been
improving rapidly. I suspect it was over the top but I don't value
companies (and you get Theo thrown in so any price has to be worth
considering!).

> I think Skype just got in there first with their own (effectively)
> closed network and a good product that actually worked well and got
> round all the hassles of NAT, firewalls, etc.

I think they got hassle free first, rather than the first product. After
that it is all down to network effect.

However I think for company valuation there are factors aside from
revenue. Microsoft want the installed user base, the Skype-Out
arrangements, and they'll presumably integrate accounts with Live so
that all the hotmail/live users have a Skype account.

But one has to put against that cost of building a similar company
(theoretically a companies valuation should not exceed the cost of
creating it from scratch, but that is hard to judge because some
intangibles are important but hard to value), and the potential risks to
revenue (and thus profit) of new innovations in the telecoms space.

Certainly I think the VOIP/SIP space has potential to compete - as the
network of people on POTS is larger than Skype, and so the network
effect is maybe not as compelling in video telecoms as in say Facebook
(where if your friends are on one Social network you need to be as
well), since if you offer good telephony (with video to people on
compatible network) you are basically in the same ballpark as Skype. I
suspect a lot of users are far flung family members who use it for video
to specific people, or for voice, rather than generally wanting video
conferencing (there our other services that do video meeting type stuff
better - Tinychat for example - although there Flash video camera stuff
doesn't seem to work nicely under Debian - flash video camera in seems a
tad shaky on GNU/Linux - but that is Adobe software for you). The far
flung family member thing probably have little loyalty to Skype other
than that is what works.





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